#prediction

Prediction Markets Are Calling It Early

This week, Polymarket and Kalshi hoped to prove they could be taken seriously. Did they?

The Atlantic · EN

Efficient Lempel-Ziv Prediction with the Run-Length BWT

The Lempel-Ziv parse of Chad Gadya (חד גדיא), right-to-left, drawn as an arc diagram. Generated by Claude Opus 5.5 I have published a new paper on efficient string prediction. It was written during the PIBBSS 2026 summer fellowship , under the mentorship of Vanessa Kosoy. This research builds on Kosoy's previous work in stringology. Kosoy built a polynomial-time algorithm for predicting repetitive sequences and I have used other algorithmic techniques to further decrease the runtime. The goal of this post is to explain some of the ideas from Kosoy's paper and how my work builds on them. My wri

LessWrong · EN

Ed Zitron's AI prediction track record

I was curious how well the predictions of the most widely cited AI skeptic I've seen (Ed Zitron) have done, so I looked at how his predictions panned out. To disclose my own biases, I've never had a particularly strong pro or anti AI progress position. For example, in 2022, I did a comprehensive look at predictions Futurists made, including well-respected folks like Kurzweil and found them to be generally wrong on both the prediction results as well as the reasoning. On the flip side, in 2015, I wrote about how people were underestimating AI's ability to displace humans in jobs and have repeat

Dan Luu · EN