#metr

Ускоряет ли ИИ разработчиков, проверить уже не получается: без него не соглашаются работать

Летом 2025-го METR засек секундомером, как опытные разработчики работают с ИИ и без него, и получил замедление на 19%, хотя сами участники были уверены, что ускорились процентов на 20. Повторить замер в 2026-м уже не вышло, потому что приглашенные стали отказываться от той половины эксперимента, где код надо писать руками. Про то, что осталось от контрольной группы, почему новые цифры почти ничего не доказывают и как компании теперь меряют продуктивность счетом за токены. Читать далее

Habr · RU

Hurtling forward

METR (Model Evaluation and Threat Research) has just released a long report detailing ways in which AI R&D is speeding up. Conversations are now happening about 'slope change ', instead of just 'step change'. AI 2027 predicted this level of progress would happen several months later than it has. Zvi Mowshowitz does a good overview of the situation.

Metafilter · EN

Where is all the AI safety research uplift?

METR recently released a report estimating that Anthropic is getting an overall 1.7x acceleration in AI capability progress as a result of AI accelerating their work. As many have noted (see e.g. Ajeya’s post ), this 1.7x acceleration implies that research is being sped up by much more than 1.7x; Ajeya speculates 10x (which is similar to the ~12x uplift estimated by Anthropic staff). That is, this result implies that researchers are producing about 10 times as many quality-adjusted results as they would without AI progress, or as they were a year or two ago. Anthropic researchers estimated tha

LessWrong · EN

AI R&D Is Accelerating Towards Potential RSI in 2027

METR came out with an extensive report on how much AI is accelerating AI R&D at Anthropic, and thus how close we might be to recursive self-improvement (RSI) and how far that might go. This is one of the most important questions in the world. Their answer: Things are already accelerating on the order of a 2x speedup. This is several months ahead of the AI 2027 timeline. A naive extrapolation says we may be less than a year away from full RSI. There are no clear bottlenecks in the way. This report updated many towards shorter timelines. This is consistent with what OpenAI and Anthropic themselv

LessWrong · EN

Anthropic's AI acceleration is probably real

METR researchers spent three months inside Anthropic to investigate whether AI is accelerating Anthropic's research, and how much. Their answers are yes , and by a lot . They estimate that between October 2025 and October 2026, Anthropic's model capabilities improved at a 2x faster growth rate than between March 2024 and October 2025. They attribute about 80% of that acceleration to AI, and 20% to non-AI factors. If true, this is the strongest evidence yet that AI is measurably speeding up frontier AI development itself – the feedback loop behind worries about recursive self-improvement leadin

LessWrong · EN

Linkpost to METR’s Anthropic Speedup Assessment

TLDR: roughly a 2x speedup, with a range of 1.3-3x. Model 4 looks very scary. https://metr.org/blog/2026-11-05-anthropic-ai-rd-acceleration-assessment/ Discuss

LessWrong · EN

METR: Independent Assessment of AI R&D Acceleration at Anthropic in October 2026

Executive summary From August 12 to October 29, 2026, METR staff performed a high-access evaluation at Anthropic to assess the degree to which AI is accelerating AI R&D. If AI systems started to significantly accelerate further AI development, this could lead to a sudden emergence of extreme and risky capabilities . Anthropic offered unprecedented access to internal data on their AI R&D process, including a variety of metrics on pretraining, reinforcement learning (RL), training compute in each domain, benchmark scores for internal models, AI speedup analyses, forecasts of a future model’s met

LessWrong · EN