#effects

煮青蛙效应：为什么缓慢的恶化，总被当成新的正常？

煮青蛙效应（Boiling Frog Effect）指人们未能察觉并抵抗逐步累积的恶化，因为没有任何单独一步看起来像紧急事件。青蛙故事只是隐喻，不是可靠的实验：健康的青蛙会设法跳出。真正有用的教训是结构性的：在漂移开始之前设定固定基线与触发线，因为注意力会随风险一起适应。

晚晴幽草轩 · ZH

锚定效应：你看到的第一个数字，正在悄悄影响你的判断

锚定效应（Anchoring Effect）是一种认知偏见，人们在决策时过度依赖最初接触到的信息（称为“锚点”）。Tversky和Kahneman在1974年首次记录了这一效应，表明即使是任意数字也会显著影响人们对价格、薪资和估算的判断。理解锚定效应有助于做出更客观的决策，并识别他人何时在操纵你的感知。

晚晴幽草轩 · ZH

越舍不得止损，越会亏得更多｜一文看懂沉没成本谬误

沉没成本谬误（Sunk Cost Fallacy）指人因为已经投出去、收不回来的时间、金钱或精力，继续做一件从现在看不值得做的事。票价、已付的维修费和已经烧掉的季度，都不会让下一个小时更有价值。常见的误解是把所有坚持都当成谬误：过去的投入若已经换成还能用的能力、关系或资产，继续可以是理性的。有用的做法是在心疼之前写好退出线，并问自己：假如今天从零开始，还会不会选它。

晚晴幽草轩 · ZH

幸存者偏差：为什么你看到的成功，可能只是幸存者？

幸存者偏差（Survivorship Bias）是一种认知偏见，人们在关注成功案例的同时忽视了那些不再可见的大量失败案例。统计学家 Abraham Wald 在二战期间首次系统研究这一效应。这种偏见通过只检查一个过程的“幸存者”而忽略那些没有幸存的对象，导致错误的结论。理解幸存者偏差有助于避免从不完整的数据中得出虚假结论，并让你质疑你“没有看到”什么。

晚晴幽草轩 · ZH

Inspiring Effects Pedals That Help You Think Differently

We explore some inspiring effects pedals that can help you to think differently about the sound creation process in any style of music under the sun. The post Inspiring Effects Pedals That Help You Think Differently appeared first on gearnews.com .

Gearnews · EN

The effects of walking

Before I started working from home, I was lucky enough to commute to the office by foot. That was 35 minutes in each direction, which is not a lot, but it isn’t bad. I used to listen to music and lots of podcasts, and that time off gave me a nice buffer to disconnect from work before getting home. Enter the pandemic and the shift to working from home. While I love it because it allows me to spend more time with my kids and helps me juggle responsibilities at home, my walking was reduced to just the weekends. Being a software engineer by vocation, this shift significantly reduced my exercise ti

Personal Log · EN