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Estimating Our Tail Fire Risk

Source: LessWrong ·

In many disasters sheltering in place can make a lot of sense , but what about fire? As someone who lives in one of the densest municipalities in the country, with 3-story wooden buildings packed close together, is fire likely enough to rule out any kind of "stay put" approach? After having Claude do some rough calculations I think probably not. Very few houses are lost to fire anymore, but this is mostly downstream from putting a lot of effort into suppression. From when a fire is reported until firefighters are on the scene is typically an impressive three minutes , and they can very quickly

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